Prediction models
Model-assisted football predictions for real fixtures
Learn how Predivio football prediction models support win, draw and loss probabilities, predicted scores, form analysis, Bayesian updates and model-assisted picks.
Predivio predictions are designed to support football analysis and league gameplay. Probabilities are not certainties, and a 60% home-win probability still means the draw or away win remains possible.
Signals the models can use
- Recent team form and results, including context from previous divisions where available.
- Attack, defence and team-strength ratings derived from historical match performance.
- Market and odds signals where available.
- xG and richer match statistics where supported by the data source, with fallbacks for unsupported leagues.
- Premier League player-context inputs from Fantasy Premier League data as snapshots build over time.
- Calibration and Bayesian updates that can adjust how model components are weighted after new results arrive.
Outcome and score models
Predivio can combine outcome models for home, draw and away probabilities with scoreline models that estimate likely goals and score distributions. The app then surfaces a headline prediction, probability breakdowns and supporting form context where available.
Bayesian improvement layer
Where enabled, the Bayesian layer compares new results with model expectations and updates stored model calibration information. It can help refine confidence and component weighting over time without pretending that any single result proves a future outcome.